Avatar 2's Only Remaining Competition is Avatar 1 and Top Gun: Maverick

Avatar: The Way of Water still ranks behind a few movies at the box office, but the only movies it'll compete with are Avatar 1 and Top Gun: Maverick

Avatar: The Way of Water has barely entered the top 10 domestic box office rankings (although it's in fourth place worldwide), but at this point it only faces serious competition from two movies: the original Avatar and Top Gun: Maverick. How Avatar: The Way of Water performs in relation to both of those movies in the next few weeks will be a major determining factor of its total box office gross and how it ranks alongside the other top-grossing movies in the history of the domestic box office.

The first Avatar is the highest-grossing movie of all time, although it's only ranked #4 all-time domestically, while Top Gun: Maverick earned the #5 rank, although it didn't perform nearly as well as Avatar internationally, particularly because it didn't get released in China. Avatar: The Way of Water is performing exceptionally well internationally and did get released in China, so, while it has yet to catch Top Gun: Maverick domestically, it's already way past its global total. Avatar 2 started its run far stronger than both Avatar and Top Gun: Maverick, but the three movies have been neck and neck more recently, all falling within a spread of less than $20 million.

Related: Every Movie Avatar 2 Hasn't Beaten at the Box Office Yet (And When it Will)

Avatar: The Way of Water has earned just over $2.17 billion at the global box office, $636.4 million of which was earned domestically, putting Avatar 2 at #3 globally and #10 domestically; however, another $27 million will see it passing #9 Jurassic World, #8 Titanic, #7 Avengers: Infinity War, and #6 Black Panther. While Avatar: The Way of Water's box office pace is already slowing down, it could still clear the $700 million mark, taking the #6 spot from Black Panther in the next 4-6 weeks.

Just because it could climb to at least #6 at the domestic box office doesn't mean Avatar: The Way of Water can climb all the way to the top, though. Based on its current trajectory, #3 Spider-Man: No Way Home ($814.1 million), #2 Avengers: Endgame ($858.4 million), and #1 Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936.7 million) are all well out of reach, even under the best of circumstances. If Avatar: The Way of Water's legs are as strong as the first Avatar and it earned another $86 million (which is how much the first Avatar earned after its ninth weekend), its total would be $732 million, 82 million lower than Spider-Man: No Way Home.

Avatar: The Way of Water's $134 million opening weekend only beat Top Gun: Maverick's $126 million opening weekend by less than $8 million, and Top Gun: Maverick actually briefly surged ahead, although Avatar: The Way of Water retook the lead before entering its third weekend. It continued to outpace Top Gun: Maverick, seeing its lead peak at $54 million on their respective 23rd day in theaters, but Top Gun: Maverick has been closing that gap ever since, and now the Avatar sequel only maintains an $11 million lead on the Top Gun sequel at the end of their ninth weekends.

Related: Will Avatar: The Way Of Water Become #1 At All-Time Box Office?

On a week-to-week basis, Avatar: The Way of Water out-earned Top Gun: Maverick in its first three weeks, but Maverick earned more week-to-week from weeks 4-7 before The Way of Water finally edged it out again. Top Gun Maverick's strong weekday performances have continued to shrink Avatar: The Way of Water's lead, and at the current rate, Top Gun: Maverick could catch the Avatar sequel in the next two to three weeks, but if Avatar's drops even out compared to Maverick's then Avatar: The Way of Water, then James Cameron's newest movie can still take the #5 domestic box office rank, but it'll be a stretch.

If Avatar: The Way of Water's total eventually passes Top Gun: Maverick's $718.7 million, it'll only be $31 million below the #4 ranked original Avatar's initial $749.8 million domestic box office run. It's chances of passing that are even more of a stretch; however, including Avatar's additional re-releases (the first of which happened in 2010, immediately after the end of Avatar's first run), Avatar's actual domestic total is $785.2 million, which is well out of reach if Avatar: The Way of Water.

While Avatar: The Way of Water's $135 million opening weekend beat the original Avatar's $77 million opening weekend by over $57 million, and extended that relative lead to a peak of over $90 million in its first three weeks, its legs haven't been able to keep pace with Avatar's. In fact, Avatar: The Way of Water only out-earned the original Avatar in its opening weekend. In its second weekend, Avatar: The Way of Water earned $63.3 million against Avatar's $75.6 million, and Avatar: The Way of Water has been the underdog ever since.

Related: Avatar: The Way of Water Is Already Outpacing Every Other Top 10 Movie

Avatar: The Way of Water's strong opening kept it ahead of its predecessor for almost nine weekends, although on Friday, The Way of Water's 57th day in theaters, its $641 million domestic total finally fell behind the first Avatar's $642 million at the same point in its run. In its own ninth weekend, Avatar earned $23.6 million, up three percent from the previous weekend, while Avatar: The Way of Water dropped almost 40 percent from its previous weekend to $6.9 million, so it's highly doubtful Avatar: The Way of Water will recoup the difference to end its run ahead of the original Avatar.

Assuming the current trends all hold, Avatar: The Way of Water still has a shot to eventually overtake Top Gun: Maverick's $718.7 million, becoming the #5 highest-grossing movie of all time at the domestic box office. Even if Avatar: The Way of Water tops out at #6 ahead of Black Panther domestically, it will have already edged out Titanic as the #3 highest-grossing movie of all time globally, giving James Cameron three of the top four highest-grossing movies in history globally and three of the top eight domestically, which are records unmatched by any other director.

Next: Full Breakdown Of James Cameron's Box Office Data (& How It Applies To Avatar 2)